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Research Training Program
VIRTUAL POSTER SESSION
2003


Testing a predictive model of Amphibian distributions for Bolivia

Miguel Fernandez
Research Training Program, 2003



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Testing a predictive model of Amphibian distributions for Bolivia


In Bolivia today, there is no balance between the many conservation problems and the time and resources available to confront them. Often social and political concerns outweigh any conservation attempts. The identification of priority sites for conservation is necessary and urgent in this country, requiring the implementation of faster and more useful tools to set priorities.

Using the NMNH database and other sources, combined with a Geographical Information System (Arc View®), Leptodactylid richness will be analyzed for Bolivia, a map of the localities will be built, and then it will be compared with a predictive distribution model for the same taxa, created by Steffen Reichle for his doctoral thesis. From this analysis, the distribution for each genus will be used to suggest conservation approaches. This project will highlight all regions with high levels of amphibian’s richness that were not considered inside Reichle’s model. This research is important because, together with other studies in different taxa, it can be used to improve the Bolivian National System of protected areas.


Material and methods

To achieve the project goal I will collect data from the NMNH amphibian collection. Data from other museums with significant herpetological collections from Bolivia will also be added. I will evaluate the data for the number of localities, the possibility of locating coordinates, and taxonomic status. I will transform all localities into latitude and longitude and map them in a base layer of Bolivia. The resulting map will be overlain with Reichle’s model and analyzed.


Results

Leptodactylus petersii is a good example of how the localities of the NMNH are in the 40-60% region of probability of occurrence of the species in Reichle’s model. If these data are added to the model, the probability of occurrence of L. petersii in northern Bolivia will increase.

Suggestions for further research

This information alone is not very helpful to formulate conservation recommendations. New data needs to be incorporated into Reichle’s model. And his model also, without other parallel studies in other taxa, is not sufficient to make conservation decisions. My plans in the future are try to build models for different taxa, like mammals and birds, to help understand the patterns of distribution of the biological megadiversity within Bolivia and giving politicians better tools to work with, improving the Bolivian National System of Protected


Acknowledgements

I specially thank Steffen Reichle for providing the predictive models. My advisors: Dr. Ron Heyer, Dr. Don Wilson and Dr. Roy McDiarmid, because working under three advisors has no parallel. Steve Gotte, for his commentaries about the project. Dan Cole, for his help mapping the localities. And Dr. Healy Hamilton for her confidence in my capacity when I was applying to the RTP.


References

Reichle, S. (stet 2003): Diversity, Distribution and Conservation status of the Amphibians of Bolivia. PhD. Thesis Rheinische Friedrichs-Wilhelm Universität Bonn, Germany.

Heyer, R. (1994): Variation within the Leptodactylus podicipinus-wagneri Complex of Fogs (Amphibia: Leptodactylidae), Smithsonian Contributions to Zoology, Number 546, Smithsonian Press, Washington D.C.


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The information presented here represents preliminary research as the result of ten-weeks of investigation in-residence at the National Museum of Natural History. This is not an official publication of the information.

As preliminary information, results and/or findings should not be cited as part of conclusive work. Please contact the authors first if you wish to utilize the information presented here.

 

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